🔍 China’s Economy Wobbles Under Dual Pressures

Deflation at home, tariffs abroad — a nation in economic crossfire

📉 The Vicious Cycle of Deflation

In Q3 2024, China’s Consumer Price Index fell by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index marked its sixth consecutive quarterly drop, falling 3.2%. Despite falling prices, consumption remains sluggish. Companies report lower profits, and the job market continues to shrink.

🏚️ Real Estate Collapse Undermines the Economic Core

Real estate prices in key cities have plummeted by up to 23.5%, erasing household wealth for millions. As the property sector was long the engine of growth, its collapse has sent shockwaves across consumption and employment, deepening the deflationary spiral.

👷 Labour Market Strains Deepen

With youth unemployment surpassing 16.4%, millions have turned to gig work. However, platforms like food delivery and ride-hailing are overcrowded, wages are unstable, and working hours have become longer. Courier numbers surged by 35% but orders fell by 12%.

🇺🇸 Tariff Shock Threatens Export-Driven Growth

Trump has vowed to impose 145% tariffs on all Chinese goods. With nearly 18% of China's exports heading to the US, key sectors like electronics, EVs, and solar panels are facing existential threats. The anticipated export decline of 20–25% could slash GDP by 1.2%.

🧭 A Crossroads for China's Future

Experts argue that without shifting to a demand-driven model and bolstering its social safety net, China risks a prolonged and silent economic unraveling. Reforms are no longer optional — they are urgent.